SURXONDARYO VILOYATIDA MEVA YETISHTIRISH KO‘RSATKICHLARINI MODEL YORDAMIDA PROGNOZLASHTIRISH
Keywords:
Box-Jenkins methodology, stationary, ADF test, ACF, PACF, model, ARIMA, correlation, MAPE, constant.Abstract
This article forecasts fruit production indicators in Surkhandarya region using ARIMA models. First, a brief overview of the ARIMA model is provided. The significance of the model was evaluated by MAPE, and the statistical significance of its parameters was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The properties of ACF and PACF for some popular models are summarized. The compliance of the residuals with the normal distribution law and the absence of autocorrelation in them were studied. As a result, forecast values up to 2028 were developed.
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